Accelerated Recent Warming and Temperature Variability Over the Past Eight Centuries in the Central Asian Altai From Blue Intensity in Tree Rings

Warming in Central Asia has been accelerating over the past three decades and is expected to intensify through end of this century. Here, we develop a summer temperature reconstruction for western Mongolia spanning eight centuries (1269–2004 C.E.) using delta blue intensity measurements from annual rings Siberian larch. A significant cooling response observed year following major volcanic events up five years post-eruption. Observed temperatures since 1990s are warmest centuries, an observation that also well captured Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model simulations. Projections relative observations suggest further warming between ?3°C 6°C by century (2075–2099 cf. 1950–2004) under representative concentration pathways 4.5 8.5 (RCP4.5 RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We conclude projected future lies beyond range natural variability millennium as estimated our reconstruction.